S.C. conservative movement at a crossroads
COLUMBIA, S.C. - Search the slate of GOP presidential frontrunners, and it's impossible to find a darling of the social-conservative movement.
That - plus considering that the Iraq war and not domestic policy is the key issue of the campaign - is leading to speculation that the religious right is at a crossroad in terms of its political power, and that the extent to which social conservatives hold sway in the next election and beyond might be determined within the next few weeks.
"I think a lot of people are wondering where the evangelicals are, when you have someone like Rudy Giuliani as a frontrunner," Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon said.
"What I think is it's sort of teetering as to whether they're going to come (out) in full force in this election," he said.
Among the GOP candidates who habitually score highest in national and early-voting state polls:
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been criticized for his support of abortion and gay rights.
Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, has been dubbed a flip-flopper on abortion, accused of only taking a firm, anti-abortion stand around the time he considered a run for president.
U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., opposes a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage unless the U.S. Supreme Court overturns state bans. Moreover, he supports federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research.
And Fred Thompson, the one-time senator from Tennessee who would like to swoop in as the savior of conservative Republicans, has been taken to task for his past lobbying on behalf of an abortion-rights group, and recently was scolded vehemently by Focus on the Family founder James Dobson in an e-mail obtained by The Associated Press.
"There is some (conservative leaning) with the top tier, but not as much as I would like," Carolyn McDonald, of Columbia, acknowledged Thursday while attending the Palmetto Family Council's forum for presidential candidates.
Religious right unsure
During the event's straw poll, McDonald voted for California Congressman Duncan Hunter. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee walked away with the win, garnering 38 percent, and Ron Paul came in second at 33 percent.
Thompson came in a distant third at 8 percent.
Straw polls are unreliable indicators of who will win the Republican nod when primary and caucus voting begins in less than four months.
But it's evidence that the religious right is torn and not fully committed to any frontrunner, University of South Carolina political scientist Blease Graham said.
Candidates themselves are trying to attract the GOP's religious base, but they are leery of alienating other constituencies, particularly in light of Republican losses in 2006, Graham said.
"It may well be ... that in the (wake) of that election, in order to build coalitions, Republicans may have to start from a moderate position," he said.
Much of the social-conservative base has lined up behind one of its own, such as Huckabee, an ordained Baptist.
That potentially puts people like a Huckabee in a strong position to wield power in the next Republican administration if they can bring in the conservative vote to whoever wins, Graham said.
Timeline for social conservatives
Huffmon believes social conservatives have about two months to change the nature of the primary/caucus race, if they can get issues such as abortion and gay marriage - instead of just Iraq and national security - back into the discussion.
If they are successful, it could vault someone like Huckabee into the first tier of candidates, he said.
"They would decidedly change the balance of power," Huffmon said.
Social-conservative leaders insist that their influence has not diminished since the height of the Christian Coalition in the 1990s. It simply has gone mainstream.
There's evidence to suggest they're right.
The last two appointments to the Supreme Court bench, for example, are staunch conservatives: Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Sam Alito.
Sadie Fields, who heads up the Georgia Christian Alliance, said social conservatives have moved beyond just influencing the decision-makers.
"Here in Georgia, it is that those people who started out at the grassroots, at that level, have moved into (elected) office," she said.
At the height of the Christian Coalition, Fields said, "we were playing defense it seems, far more than we were playing offense."
Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard agreed.
"People who were active then have now graduated and have taken positions of power within the Republican Party," Woodard said.
He said the university's recent Palmetto Poll shows exactly how pivotal the religious base remains.
According to the survey of likely Republican and Democratic voters in South Carolina, 66 percent of Republicans - and 64 percent of Democrats - attend church every week.
"I think that what it means is they're a very important part of the Republican base," Woodard said.
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